A popular cryptanalyst outlines what he thinks could be worst-case scenarios for the top two digital assets. In a new interview on Altcoin Daily’s YouTube channel, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen says macro headwinds could propel Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) to fresh bear market lows. Looking at Ethereum, Cowen predicts that ETH could lose up to 65% of its value from its current price of $1,175. “The worst-case scenario would depend on how bad this potential recession ends up being. It’s hard to say precisely how this will affect cryptocurrencies, but for Ethereum, the primary levels I’m looking at are in the $400-$600 range.
I don’t know if it will go all the way down to $400, but $600 ETH is potentially a possibility, mainly because there’s a lot of evidence that this is a cycle behind Bitcoin. In terms of volatility. ETH’s first cycle was a substantial 95% bear market, and Bitcoin’s first bear market was 94% time, or even 88%, that will take it just under $600, so I think one can argue that Ethereum could have that final capitulation in the $400-$600 range. The famous analyst lays out what he’s for, possibly the worst-case scenario for the top crypto asset by market cap, adding that he thinks it will be more manageable than altcoins.
“I think Bitcoin can fall less than some of these altcoins to really find its bottom. The leading indicators I’m still seeing that still need to be activated are things like Bitcoin usually having a daily close below their balanced price.” Right now, the breakeven price is at $15,000, so we need to go below $15,000 at some point. Bitcoin’s Balanced Price is a model that attempts to capture the fair value of the crypto king by measuring the difference between BTC’s realized price and the transmitted price. BTC is changing hands at $16,154 as of this writing, down 2.54% over the past 24 hours.