Here’s How to Spot the Next 20X Crypto Asset, According to BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes shares his method for selecting the altcoins that could be the most common in the next crypto cycle. In a new interview with Real Vision, Hayes says he’s scouting the market for projects that seem to have enough acceptance and credibility. to survive in the long term. “I assume you’re using the survival bias.
If I look at an asset with the highest market cap of 20 and it’s down 95%, will it survive the next cycle? Will he survive the next two years?
How much money did you raise? If the answer is yes, buy it. In the worst case, it drops to zero. At best, raise by 10x or 20x. If it goes from 100 to one and goes from one to 10, it’s a 10x.
It’s still not nearly the same as it was, but I’m just playing the rebound.
So you know that in crypto bounce when the next cycle starts whatever has been down the most will rise the most just because of the path dependency of how returns work. I think that doesn’t change for most of these things. Most will fail, you really don’t care. It’s really just a numbers game. Whether the current market has fallen as low as it wants, Hayes says, is impossible to know for sure.
But he believes the market is about to bottom and the main question now is how long prices will remain at the lows. “I think we close the floor. Do we have $17,000 or $18,000 in Bitcoin? Maybe, maybe no. Do we think it goes much deeper when it breaks?
Probably not. I’m just thinking: who is selling physically? We had a classic credit crunch like any other asset class. It could be Asia 1998. It could have been a 1994 Mexico.
It could have been an Argentina. It’s all the same. Similar behavior, the tide receded, everyone went bankrupt and you have the power to sell.
And then you think about who went bankrupt? The biggest and most revered hedge fund startup personalities have come forward and say they’ve had some financial difficulties. So the only people I think could sell at scale are the miners. And then you have to ask yourself: when they had to sell in size in mid-June, when the price was even lower than today, when people asked for credit and no one could get credit.
Now things have stabilized somewhat. , who is screwed and who is Right? So I suppose I’m trying to think of a cohort that didn’t have to sell a month and a half, two months ago that now has to sell today because we’re back on the same page. And I just don’t see that intensity, which makes me think we’re just cutting through the background. We may not be here for a while; we may be here for a while. That doesn’t mean we’ll be uploading soon.