Popular crypto analyst Cred says that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price may have hit bottom at around $20,000 in a market correction driven by unprecedented factors.
In a new Youtube market analysis, Cred says BTC’s trading price may not drop lower but if it does, he says in the long term it will not matter.
“I think $20,000 is a good price. Is it necessarily the best price? No. Does it matter if it’s the best price or not? Absolutely not. Like if you bought Bitcoin in 2018 at $6,000 and it broke down to $3,000 you probably felt like a complete idiot for buying at six and now it’s at three. However, you probably felt quite smart if you held and saw it go to $69,000.
I think a similar analogy can be extended to kind of $20,000. It’s a coin toss whether it’s a generational bottom or not and where the market really ends up. But I think over a long enough time horizon if you’re right about crypto or if you care about crypto, you’re probably not going to regret buying $20,000. It simply depends on your volatility and drawdown tolerance in the interim.”
Cred supports his “generational bottom” price target by pointing to the factors that have led to the ongoing market correction. He says the markets are reacting to a confluence of factors that are likely only experienced once in a lifetime, which presents an opportunity for investors.
“It’s worth bearing in mind that macro bigger picture that cyclically speaking or long term multi-cycle crypto speaking, these aren’t terrible prices by any means. And also in terms of macro context, realistically, I know at the moment it sucks and the Fed is raising rates and inflation is high and strong dollar and this, that and the other. But if we zoom out, on our investing careers and trading lifetimes, if we’re frank about it, how many tightening cycles are we likely to get?
Like how many times will these incredibly unique conditions repeat themselves where we get completely shut down and new economics from COVID, super-inflationary crazy fiscal and monetary policy post-COVID? And then the crazy inflation and tight correction that followed after? I mean that sequence of events is on its own just so unfathomable that realistically speaking we may only get one in our lifetime.
So even if we take the credit cycle and liquidity cycles in general, we’re talking about a very small handful of these types of corrections taking place in our lifetime. The crypto corrections, yes, may and will happen more often. But in terms of this whole big macro liquidity basket correlated to trade, I think the number of times we’ll get to experience this in our lifetimes is very, very low. And therefore it also presents an opportunity, especially if you can stomach some drawdown.”
Cred says he is looking for certain signs to determine when a bull run may take shape for BTC.
“I want the previous cycle’s all-time high of $19,900 to $20,000 to stop acting as resistance and act as support. I think that would create a day trading bias towards the range midpoint at $21,000. And then maybe as high as, I know that sounds depressing but maybe as high as $23,000 to $24,000 if that’s the range high.”
Bitcoin is trading for $20,216 at time of writing, a nearly 4% positive change on the day.
This article was originally published on dailyhodl.com